Calculation of hydropower generation capacity of India using average regression integrated model

Abstract

Hydropower is a prominent energy source contributing for more than 60% of global renewable electricity. It plays a key role in green power generation and has a fundamental influence on power market prices. As a result, precisely predicting the yearly hydro-power generation is need of the hour for the present situations. India is endowed with rich hydropower potential to the tune of 148 GW, which will be able to meet a demand of 84 GW at 60% load factor. Various factors have contributed to the slow pace of hydropower development, resulting in the declining share of hydropower in India’s energy mix. The issues have been exacerbated as hydropower development has largely remained under the ambit of state governments with varying policies. Hydropower’s critical role in our nation’s energy security is based on the elements of sustainability, availability and affordability. I believe this conference will highlight the industry’s collective concerns and issues impacting the development of the hydropower sector. The present study focused on predicting the hydropower generation of India through Average Regression Integrated Model (ARIM) on the basis of the historical data from the year 1990 to 2020. The model helps to monitor and understand the nonlinear behavior of India’s hydropower generation as well as energy markets in India.